Online Edition | Washington State University | Pullman, Washington | Friday, March 8, 2002

Economic upswing?

Based on reports from the U.S. Commerce Department, "The Chicago Tribune" recently reported:

The U.S. economy, propelled by the biggest surge in consumer spending on big-ticket goods in 15 years, grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the final quarter of 2001, the government reported today.

The latest snapshot of the economy’s health, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), suggests that the recession, which began in March (last year), has probably ended and may turn out to be the country’s mildest downturn ever, analysts said.

That’s consistent with the economic assessment Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan provided to Congress one day earlier, though Greenspan cautioned that the recovery will probably be modest.

GDP, the total output of goods and services produced within the United States, grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the final quarter of 2001, considerably stronger than the 0.2 percent growth rate first estimated, the Commerce Department said.

The better-than-expected fourth quarter performance came after the economy shrank at a rate of 1.3 percent in the third quarter.

"This is a recession-ette," said Tim O’Neill, chief economist at Bank of Montreal.

Economists are estimating the economy grew in the current January – March quarter at a rate of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent.