Research in 2002 - 2007: Improved Modeling of the Electric Power Industry

This research focused on improved methods of simulating restructured electricity markets in the western USA. The work has been supported by the National Science Foundation and conducted in collaboration with faculty and students in power systems engineering and with our energy policy colleagues in Olympia, WA.

Down Loads:

Journal Article (18 pages, 379 KB)	Simulation Scenarios for Rapid Reduction in Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Western Electricity System Andrew Ford, to appear in Energy Policy.
conference paper (55 pages, 1,786 KB)	Simulating the Impact of a Carbon Market on the Electricity System in the Western USA Andrew Ford, Inter. Conf. of the System Dynamics Society, Neijmegen, July 2005
Journal Article (33 pages, 271 KB)	Simulating Price Patterns for Tradable Green Certificates to Promote Electricity Generation from Wind Andrew Ford, Klaus Vogstad & Hilary Flynn, Energy Policy, Vol 35, 2007
Journal Article (30 pages, 744 KB)	An Interdisciplinary Approach to Long-Term Modeling for Power System Expansion A. Dimitrovski, A. Ford & K. Tomsovic, Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Vol 3, 2007
Journal Article (28 pages, 535 KB)	Statistical Screening of System Dynamics Models Andrew Ford & Hilary Flynn, System Dynamics Review, Vol 21, No 4, 2005 (excell template files listed in Table 2)
conference paper (23 pages, 496 KB)	A System Dynamics Study of Carbon Cycling and Electricity Generation from Energy Crops Hilary Flynn & Andrew Ford, Inter. Conf. of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, July 2005

Research in 1999-2002: Boom & Bust in the Electric Power Industry

This research focused on power plant construction in restructured electricity markets. The premise was that competitive electricity markets are prone to the same cycles of boom and bust that appear in commodity markets and in specialized industries like real estate. We used computer simulation to understand the cycle of boom and bust. The models were then used to simulate policies that could lead to improved behavior in the future. Down Loads:   Workshop Paper (52 pages, 757 KB   Simulation Scenarios for the Western Electricity Market California Energy Commission Workshop on Alternative Market Structures Nov 7, 2001  Journal Article (15 pages, 353 KB)  Boom & Bust in Power Plant Construction: Lessons from the California Electricity Crisis Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade Vol 2, Nu 1/2, June 2002, a special issue on the "California Energy Crisis"  Conference Paper (11 pages, 105 KB)   Conservation in an Era of Boom and Bust September 24, 2001   Journal Article (43 pages, 457 KB)  Waiting for the Boom: A Simulation Study of Power Plant Constrution in California Energy Policy, Vol 29, p. 847-869  Flight Simulator Summary (9 pages, 187 KB)  An Interactive Model of Power Plant Construction Informal Summary of the Flight Simulator for the EPRI Workshop on Boom and Bust in the Competitive Electric Industry, August 3, 2000.  CEC Report (11 pages, 231 KB)  Simulating Patterns of Power Plant Construction with the CEC Model Summary Report to the California Energy Commission, November 14, 2000. Links to information in 1999-2001 Energy Policy Browseable version of a 1999 article on construction cycles in the western USA. Price Forecasts Summary of two market price forecasts by the California Energy Commission. New Power Plants Informal summary of proposed power plants in early 2001 in California.  Boom & Bust in the Real Estate Industry  The real estate industry has a long history of boom & bust in construction. The experience is helpfull in thinking about boom & bust in power plant construction. The reports are PDF files which may be read with the Adobe Acrobat Reader. Click here to obtain a free copy of the reader. Return to Andy Ford's Home Page